Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. Guardant Health's shares sank as much as 34% off the highs from earlier in the year before rebounding. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader in Phase III Trial For Use in Resistant ER-Positive Breast CancerREDWOOD CITY, Calif., July 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Guardant Health… Pending the FDA approval, the frontline workers and the vulnerable groups are likely to receive the first shots before the wider availability expected in mid-2021. 0. Yet, amid pandemic-related concerns over its revenue growth, the first-ever regulatory win hasn’t sparked the share price rally that usually follows such announcements. Notwithstanding the YTD outperformance compared to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, Guardant, in our view, has yet to price in a faster recovery in sales. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. If you had invested in the stock at its IPO, your initial investment would have nearly quadrupled in 20 months.That’s a whole lot better than tripling in a decade. Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Then the pandemic spread across the U.S., where Guardant sources ~90.6% of its revenue. Citing the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, the management wouldn’t issue a guidance for the year. From their late-stage clinical trials, two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data. Guardant Health expects full-year revenue in the range of $130 million to $135 million. Since its IPO in 2018, the company scored its most significant clinical milestone. Great Protection In An Uncertain Environment: Guardant Health Inc. (GH) and... Edward Bosworth-November 7, 2020. The burst in test volume growth seen in 2019 has come to a grinding halt. Investment Thesis. The company reported impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of Guardant360. Indicating ~32.9% YoY growth, ~$284.9 million of consensus revenue forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6% YoY growth for Q4 2020. However, driven by repeated capital injections, the cash and equivalents have doubled from 2019 year-end to reach ~$1.0 billion in Q3 2020. Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. By comparison, the company's total revenue last year was $214.4 million. LUNAR-1 is another RUO/IUO product for treatment selection and the detection of post-surgery minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence in the early stage of the disease. Tag: Guardant Health Inc. Companies. Why? At that point, an initial investment of $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO would have been worth $46,714. Guardant Health Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) has won Frost & Sullivan's 2020 Market Leadership Award for Liquid Biopsy in Precision Oncology in AMEA. Google+. A subsequent respite in the virus spread will likely accelerate the recovery in test volumes as patients eventually return to doctors’ offices to seek cancer care, something they cannot postpone indefinitely. Nearly $36,250. A look at the technology behind Guardant's diagnostics system, and some speculation as to which companies might be a potential suitor in a buyout 1. Twitter. Sources: The Author; Data from Seeking Alpha and the Author Estimates. And there were at least a couple of major factors behind the surging demand for Guardant Health's products. Guardant Health. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. Exact Sciences Corp. said it will acquire Thrive Earlier Detection Corp. to gain technology for cancer screening in a deal worth as much as $2.15 billion. From ~47.2% YoY (year-over-year) growth in Q3 2020 on an LTM basis, the sharp slowdown seems unrealistic in light of the recent developments. Find the latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc here. If you enjoyed this article and wish to receive updates on my latest research, click “Follow” next to my name at the top. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). With COVID-19 being responsible for about 30% of the mortality rate in cancer patients, the virus fears have discouraged the patients from visiting cancer clinics. Thrive Earlier Detection Corp., Cambridge, Mass. See you at the top! When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. The consensus estimate for 2020 reflects the gloomy outlook. Excellent Anchor Investment For Any Retirement Portfolio: Guardant Health Inc. (GH)... Edward Bosworth-November 5, 2020. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Investment Thesis. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. However, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the focus of Guardant’s LUNAR-2 assay, is rising. As the company’s long-term prospects in early cancer detection and the precision-oncology outweigh the near-term risks from COVID-19, Guardant is a compelling ‘Buy’ for us. However, as the coronavirus cases showed signs of easing in August following the surge in early summer, a slight recovery has begun in Q3 2020. The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. flipped into Stock Ideas. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains?source=tweet 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That's still a fantastic performance even with the recent coronavirus-fueled decline. Guardant Health shares have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the year. The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor, If You Invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO, This Is How Much Money You'd Have Now @themotleyfool #stocks $GH, reported impressive results in February 2019, Why Guardant Health Tumbled by Over 10% on Monday. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Seeking Alpha - Investment Thesis When I last covered AbbVie (ABBV) back in October and ahead of its Q320 results, the company's shares traded at $83.5 and were in a … Landscape version of the Flipboard logo. I don't think so. With lung cancer being the second most prevalent and the most frequent cause for cancer-related deaths in the U.S., the FDA signoff can widen the accessibility of the test as well as Guardant’s addressable market. On an LTM (last twelve-month) basis, the company’s top-line had more than doubled compared to the year-ago period for four consecutive quarters through Q1 2020 (first quarter of 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. The risks that investors should prepare for in 2021, Guangdong marks double-digit export growth, FDA staff recommends watching for Bell’s palsy in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients, Bill Gates says coronavirus lockdowns could continue into 2022 [VIDEO], U.S. tech giants face 6-10% fines as EU set rules to curb their power, Keynote Speech at the Rome Investment Forum 2020, Dominion Voting System “Designed…to Create Systemic Fraud”. Open in app; Sign up. Pinterest. To the benefit of numerous rivals in the sector, the size of the market is expanding too. In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. With patient visits remaining 90% below the pre-pandemic level, the expansion of test volumes at ~8.0% YoY in Q3 2020 stands far below the ~76.6% YoY growth in 2019. Investment Thesis. Guardant Health's IPO share price was $19, even higher than the $15 to $17 range that the company expected. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. The regulatory signoff should raise hopes for Guardant’s broad portfolio of cancer tests, which aim to detect all stages of the disease through liquid biopsy. The company has been in business since 2013 but didn't conduct its initial public offering (IPO) until Oct. 4, 2018. But margin expansion hasn’t offset the impact from shrinking revenue growth, and for the second quarter in a row, the operating loss has widened by multiple times from a year ago. However, it doesn’t have repeat customers like Guardant Health where patients need to get retested every so often. LUNAR-1 targets the detection of cancer recurrence in patients and helping drugmakers in the development of adjuvant therapies for early stage cancer. The total Institutional investors and hedge funds own 84.80% of … Roche (SIX:ROG; OTCQB:RHHBY), Basel, Switzerland. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. With plans to recruit 10,000 patients, the ECLIPSE trial is in progress to evaluate LUNAR-2 in the detection of colorectal cancer in average-risk adults, and the COBRA study has enrolled 1,400 patients with ‘resected colon cancer’ to validate its efficacy in cancer surveillance. window.SA = {"App":{"name":"SA","fullName":"Seeking Alpha","type":"regular","host":"https://seekingalpha.com","financeApiHost":"https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com","emailHost":"https://email.seekingalpha.com","pro":false,"isPremium":false,"isProPlus":false,"contributorCenter":false,"realHostName":"https://seekingalpha.com","isCms":false,"cancelPV":false,"isSharkPreview":false,"usersOnSite":"9,188,197","assetHosts":["https://static.seekingalpha.com","https://static1.seekingalpha.com","https://static2.seekingalpha.com","https://static3.seekingalpha.com"],"moneData":{"params":"article_logged_out=controlu0026news_page=cp_news_page"},"assetHost":"https://static.seekingalpha.com","userEchoHost":"https://feedback.seekingalpha.com","unbounceHost":"https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com","env":{"dev":false,"staging":false,"production":true,"test":false},"gaAccountId":"UA-142576245-1","pianoAccountId":"CWJjPp7cpu","comscoreAccountId":8500672,"fbAppId":"2459764930747368","googleClientId":"853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com","twitterAccountName":"SeekingAlpha","rollbarToken":"5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2","perimeterXAppId":"PXxgCxM9By","embedlyKey":"a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b","mp":false,"chat":{"host":"https://rc.seekingalpha.com"},"oneSignalAppId":"32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32","gptHeaderTest":null,"allowAdBlockPopup":null},"pageConfig":{"Refresher":{"active":false},"Data":{"article":{"id":4390753,"title":"Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains","stub":false,"primaryTicker":"gh","indexGroup":null,"prioritizedTicker":"gh","primaryIsCrypto":false,"isTranscript":false,"isSlides":false,"twitContent":"$GH - Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. Backed by better payer coverage for its late-stage cancer detection test, Guardant Health, Inc. has seen its top-line rising more than a two-fold from the previous year. The one investment that's never let long-term investors down. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. But the vaccine hopes could accelerate the recovery in test volumes as the FDA approval speeds up the clinical adoption of Guardant360. 0. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … The NTM EV/Sales is also trading at a discount compared to historicals. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH) Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection …. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. These results also helped pave the way for Guardant Health to pick up key reimbursement deals and coverage decisions from payers. In September, Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) paid $7.1 billion in cash and stock to acquire GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL), a developer of liquid biopsy-based tests for early detection. According to Illumina, early detection could make up ~61% of the global market for cancer genetic sequencing, which is growing at 27% of CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to reach $75 billion by 2035. With cases of lung carcinoma, 84% of which are caused by NSCLC, being more prevalent, Guardant, however, caters to a much larger market, unlike Adaptive, which targets rare blood cancers. Log in; Seeking Alpha. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). UBS SECURITIES LLC bought a fresh place in Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR). So how much would that $10,000 investment in the company's IPO be worth now? The stock market plunged as the novel coronavirus and the disease that it causes, COVID-19, spread across the world. Facebook. It's usually because there's a perception that the companies are on to something big. Market data powered by FactSet and Web Financial Group. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. Companies . With our more upbeat sales forecasts, the 2019 average in NTM EV/Sales indicates a sharp premium. During 2019, Guardant Health's share price more than doubled. With EV at 28.5x of 12-month forward sales, the company trades at a ~24.8% discount to its 2019 average of ~37.9x. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. Returns as of 12/15/2020. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. The stock closed at an all-time high on Feb. 21, 2020. By the end of its first day of trading, the healthcare stock had soared nearly 70% higher. Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) definitely has such an X factor. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). Last year, ... Guardant Health Inc. (NASDAQ:GH), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. Guardant Health delivered these tremendous gains the old-fashioned way. Sign up today for full access. Early investors who were afraid of missing out haven't missed out on some impressive returns. As FDA approves more and more targeted therapies, the developers such as Guardant, whose precision tests are based on genomic profiling, stand to benefit in the long term. By comparison, the company's … Guardant’s FDA win has increased its comparability to Adaptive, which already had FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers. * Invitae’s management is very seasoned in this field, with high Glassdoor rating and track record of having built public companies in the same field. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. The company topped Wall Street's estimates quarter in and quarter out. View Anna Chen Ph.D.’s profile on LinkedIn, the world's largest professional community. This study pitted Guardant Health's liquid biopsy against standard-of-care tissue testing in detecting key biomarkers in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. Stocks. Guardant360 is used to match advanced-stage cancer patients with the best therapy, while GuardantOMNI is used by drugmakers to screen patients for clinical trials evaluating cancer drugs. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Edward Bosworth - September 3, 2020. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the discount in trading multiple compared to the historical average underscore the concerns. Gets Its Catalyst And Trades Up: Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Guardant Health Inc. (GH) By. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. But with COVID-19 making a resurgence in the U.S., the clinical test volumes, generating ~47.2% of total revenue, are likely to grow at low single digits sequentially in the current quarter, the management projects. Janssen Biotech has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab. After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. Broader public access to highly effective vaccines can turn the tide and ensure the faster recovery for clinical diagnostics, especially for cancer, a highly acute condition requiring therapy. Therefore, with long-term prospects for precision oncology and early cancer detection gaining momentum, Guardant, a leading test developer in the field, is a ‘Buy’ for us. Though Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the management confirms LUNAR-2 will be applicable for a variety of cancers. Grail’s Galleri test is undergoing development, hoping to uncover 50 different cancers with a high degree of specificity. The most promising test, under development seeking FDA approval and CMS coverage, the LUNAR-2 assay targets early cancer detection in asymptomatic and high-risk individuals. Guardant360 came out on top. User Sign In. Let's conquer your financial goals together...faster. Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. % in less than 20 months 10 years as well lunar-1 is around 15... For Guardant360, Guardant Health expects full-year revenue in the sector, healthcare. ( NYSE: TWTR ) bought 8.7 million shares of the year IPO share price was $ 19 even. Business since 2013 but did n't conduct its initial public offering ( )... 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Have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the stock guardant health investment thesis a transaction took place on 6/30/2020 test volumes biopharma.